Bet And Win On Your Favorite Sports With Happistar – Most sports bettors have heard of expected value, but few are familiar with its true meaning. Even fewer apply the concept to their betting.

Here’s everything you need to know about expected value and why it’s perhaps the most important factor in your sports betting returns.

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At its simplest, expected value in sports betting is a way of measuring the difference in odds between the bettor’s expectations and the sportsbook’s expectations.

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Oddsmakers determine their odds using betting lines that bettors see assigned to all money lines, point spreads, totals and any other type of bet. Almost all legal sports betting in the US exclusively uses so-called American odds, with positive numbers (eg +100, +222, etc.) assigned to the underdog, and negative numbers (-120, -155, etc.). given to the favorite.

In this system, the number of lines increases as the probability of winning decreases and the number of rows decreases as the probability of winning increases.

This means that a +100 underdog is more likely to win than a +240 (according to the book). Conversely, a -190 favorite is more likely to win than a -120 favorite.

For example, if the book picks a team, say the Seahawks vs. the Patriots, +100 line, which means a 50% chance of winning, or a coin flip.

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If a bettor believes that the Seahawks actually have a greater than 50% chance of winning this game, they will assign a positive expected value (+EV). If that bettor believes the team has less than a 50% chance of winning, they will assign a negative expected value (-EV).

Weighting bets by expected value gives discerning bettors a fundamental advantage over most other bettors and one of the few advantages they can have over a sportsbook.

A common mistake novice sports bettors make is going through the scoreboard at the last minute or watching the Sunday morning NFL odds in hopes of picking the day’s winners. Those looking for expected value, or +EV, consider the lines (and by extension, the odds) that oddsmakers give each game, often as early as possible, and try to determine whether the bet is overpriced. or lower?

The NFL’s top players have a habit of finding value early in the week. Oddsmakers had adjusted their lines on Thursday, and in an efficient market like the NFL, value bets are only available for a short time before the market catches up.

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Positive Expected Value betting is a basic sports betting method that is underutilized by casual bettors, often referred to as the “public.”

A casual bettor is more like a roulette player hoping that their suit will be called. A +EV bettor is a stockbroker who wants to sell high and low.

As much as sports bettors overestimate the wisdom of their bets, it is nearly impossible to win long-term simply by hoping to find winners. Sports books in Las Vegas (and now more than a dozen other states) have spent decades pricing hundreds of thousands of sporting events. They use the best odds generators, software and algorithms to find the most profitable lines. Even the most profitable bettors “only” win about 55%-56% of bets.

There is a reason that many sports books, whether in Las Vegas, New Jersey, Illinois, Colorado or Pennsylvania, give their customers bonuses, free drinks and other perks; they will get their money back.

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Almost every commercial and online sportsbook charges at least a 5 percent fee (4.54% to be exact), also known as the lively or “wig,” on the betting line. For example, if a sportsbook gives both teams a 50% chance to win, the lines for both teams are -110 instead of +100 (52.38% implied odds). This means players pay what is essentially an additional 5% tax on every bet, win or lose. A bettor would need to win 52.38% of his bets just to break even.

Along with this, sports betting has historically had a return of between 5% and 8% on the total amount wagered, meaning that sports betting gives players the best chance of winning of any legal form of gambling. Very few sports bettors make significant money in the long run, but smart betting can at least keep bettors playing for fun.

To do this, the bettor must think critically. Expected value betting does not guarantee long-term success, but gambling without EV considerations guarantees long-term failure.

To use another analogy, a +EV bettor is like a discerning shopper at the supermarket. A smart shopper notices when a product is priced higher than on a previous visit and finds a substitute accordingly. In effect, that same shopper is buying a product at a discount that they wouldn’t have bought otherwise.

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Sports betting works the same way. Instead of betting on a team that is highly likely to win but requires a firm price to bet, +EV bettors shop the online sports betting industry for the biggest discrepancies between what they think will happen and what , which book, through its bets. lines, offers will happen.

To take a specific sports betting example, let’s say a sports book lists the Detroit Lions as -150 money favorites over the Chicago Bears. A typical bettor thinks the Lions will win, so they bet on Detroit. A sharp bettor understands that the sportsbook’s line suggests that the Lions have a 60% chance of winning. While they also believe the Lions will win, they think it’s much less likely than the book says. In this scenario, they are instead looking at the Bears, who are +130 money terms, which translates to a 43.48% chance of winning.

Even though the +EV bettor thinks the Lions are the better team, and even though they seem more likely to win, they think the Bears have more than a 43.58% chance of winning.

The value is with the bears, so the +EV bettor bets on Chicago. Sometimes +EV can be found during the game as bettors look for an advantage at sportsbooks that offer in-game bets. In short, expected value bettors are not betting on who they think will win, but on the scenario.

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; A +EV bettor sometimes bets on a team they expect to lose if that’s the value.

It may seem like taking the odds on a betting line is a complicated formula, but it’s actually the simplest component of EV betting.

For American ratios, if the book row is a positive value, the formula requires dividing 100 by the row number plus 100. This is as follows.

So if the book line is +110, divide 110 by 110 plus 100. Bettors must remember to add the line plus 100 first. This will look like this:

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Converting negative coefficients is just as easy. This time it is the line that is divided by the line plus 100. This is as follows.

Using the -190 instance, I would like the following: Again, the formula requires adding both parts of the denominator (or the second half of the equation) before dividing the numerator:

From there, the bettor can place a +EV bet by not simply predicting whether the team will win, lose, or close, but by weighing the likelihood of such an event against the odds given in the book.

Bettors may note that the odds in the above example do not add up to 100%. In the Bears-Lions example at the top of the page, the combined percentages for Chicago (+130 / 43.48% chance to win) and Detroit (-150 / 60% chance to win) equal 103.48%.

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Or if you notice from the “even” betting example earlier, both teams are assigned -110 lines or 52.38% odds. This is due to the wig applied to almost every bet.

This seemingly small fee adds up in the long run, making it difficult for sports bettors to break even, much less profit. A truly even bet, such as a coin toss, should be +100 heads, +100 tails. Instead, sportsbooks list Super Bowl coin flip bets at -110 for both heads and tails.

Because Super Bowl coin toss bettors are roughly split between heads and tails, the sportsbook is essentially guaranteed to win money regardless of the outcome. It is worth noting that since the probability of two heads or tails is 50%, and sportsbooks “charge” 52.38% for the bet, this is a classic example of an -EV bet.

More traditional sports betting works in much the same way. If, for example, the book receives roughly an even number of bettors who bet that the favorite will cover and the favorite will not cover, you are guaranteed to win money.

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Of course, not every sports bet is a coin toss. These are the ones +EV bettors look for, keeping their cool and patiently waiting for a betting line that looks out of place.

Unfortunately, bettors have no clear way of knowing which bets have a positive expected value. Some bettors rely on their own algorithms, others follow injury news, and some have at least a semi-reliable feel for the market and more often than not know when it’s time to “buy low,” allowing them to beat the closing line. .

As mentioned earlier, books define their lines based on decades of experience and considerable financial and human capital. The sportsbook operator uses this vast intellectual and financial wealth to create a line that the average bettor cannot realistically replicate with nearly the same accuracy. For most sports bettors, it’s a no-brainer

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