Bet On Your Favorite Sports With The Best Sports Betting Site In India: Pokerstars Sports – Most sports bettors have heard of expected value, but few are familiar with what it actually means. Fewer people apply this concept to their bets.

Here’s everything you need to know about expected value and why it’s likely the most important factor in your sports betting ROI.

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Simply put, the expected value in sports betting is a measure of the probability gap between the bettor’s expectations and the sportsbook’s expectations.

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Oddsmakers assign their odds by betting lines, and bettors see assignments on all winlines, spreads, totals and any other type of bet. Almost all legal US sportsbooks exclusively use so-called American odds, which assign positive numbers (such as +100, +222, etc.) to underdogs and negative numbers (-120, -155, etc.) in favorites.

In this system, the number of lines increases as the probability of winning decreases, and the number of lines decreases as the probability of winning increases.

That means a +100 loser is more likely to win than a +240 loser (according to the book). Conversely, a -190 favorite is more likely to win than a -120 favorite.

For example, if a book assigns a team — say Seahawks vs. Patriots — +100 row, that means a 50% chance of winning, or a coin toss.

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If bettors think the Seahawks actually have a higher than 50% chance of winning this game, they will assign a positive Expected Value (+EV). If the bettor thinks the team has less than a 50% chance of winning, they assign a negative expected value (-EV).

Weighing bets against expected value gives the smart bettor a major advantage over most other bettors and is one of the few advantages they can achieve in sports betting.

A common mistake among novice sports bettors is rushing to the board at the last minute, or checking the NFL odds on Sunday morning, hoping to pick the day’s winner. Those looking for expected value, or +EV, usually look in advance at the odds (and, by extension, probabilities) offered by the oddsmaker for each match and try to calculate whether the bet is over or undervalued.

The best NFL bettors have a habit of seeing value early in the week. By Thursday, the oddsmakers have adjusted their odds, and in a great market like the NFL, value betting can only be used for a short time before the market catches up.

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Positive expected value betting is a basic sports betting method that is underutilized by recreational bettors (often referred to as the “public”).

Casual bets are more like roulette players who want to call their color. +EV bettors are stockbrokers looking to sell high and buy low.

Although most sports bettors overestimate their betting acumen, it is almost impossible to win in the long run by just hoping to find a winner. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas (and now a dozen other states) have spent decades analyzing hundreds of thousands of sporting events. They use the best oddsmakers, programs and algorithms to find the best lines. Even the most profitable bettors “only” win about 55%-56% of their bets.

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Almost every retail and online sportsbook charges at least a 5% (4.54% to be exact) fee on the bet line, also known as vigorish or “vig”. For example, if a sportsbook assigns two teams a 50% chance of winning, both teams will be given odds of -110 (implied probability of 52.38%) instead of +100. This means that bettors pay an additional tax of 5% on every bet they place (win or lose). Bettors need to win 52.38% of their bets to break even.

All together, sports betting used to make up between 5% and 8% of all bet profits, which means that sports betting offers players the best chance of winning any legal that form of gambling. Few sports bettors make big money in the long run, but smart betting can at least keep the bettors entertained.

To do this, bettors must think critically. Expected value betting is no guarantee of long-term success, but betting without EV is bound to fail in the long run.

Put another way, a +EV bettor is like a smart supermarket shopper. Smart shoppers will notice that an item is more expensive than on previous visits and will look for alternatives accordingly. In fact, the same consumer will buy a discounted item that they might not otherwise buy.

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Sports betting works the same way. Instead of betting on a team that has a good chance of winning but requires a high stake, +EV bettors shop the entire online sports betting industry to discover the difference between what they think will happen and what will happen. books by their betting lines The biggest difference between , hints will occur.

For a concrete example of sports betting, let’s say the sportsbook has the Detroit Lions at -150 on the Chicago Bears. A typical bettor thinks the Lions will win, so they bet on Detroit. An enthusiastic bettor realizes that the sportsbook lines indicate that the Lions have a 60% chance of winning. While they also believe the Lions will win, they don’t think it’s as likely as the book says. In this case, they turn to the Bears, who are +130 losers, which translates to a 43.48% chance of winning.

While +EV bettors think the Lions are the better team — despite looking more likely to win — they believe the Bears have a better than 43.58 percent chance of winning.

The value is on the Bears, so +EV bettors are betting on Chicago. +EV is sometimes seen in games as bettors look for an advantage at sportsbooks that offer live betting.

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+EV Bettors sometimes bet on teams they expect to lose if the value is there.

Deriving probabilities from betting lines may seem like a complicated formula, but it’s actually the simplest part of EV betting.

For American odds, if the book line is positive, the formula requires dividing 100 by the line by 100. It looks like this:

So if the game line for the book is +110, divide 110 by 110 and add 100. Bettors should remember to add 100 to the line first. It looks like:

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Converting negative odds is just as easy. This time, it’s line divided by line plus 100. It looks like:

For example, using -190 requires the following. Also, the formula requires adding the two denominators (or the second half of the equation) before dividing by the numerator:

From there, bettors can place +EV bets, not just by predicting whether a team will win, lose or tie, but by weighing the likelihood of that happening against the probabilities given in the book.

Bettors may note that the probabilities in the example above do not add up to 100%. In the Bears-Lions example at the top of the page, the combined percentage for Chicago (+130 / 43.48% chance to win) and Detroit (-150 / 60% chance to win) equals 103.48%.

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Or, if you noticed from the “Even” betting example earlier, both teams are at -110 odds, or a 52.38% probability. This is due to the vig, which is suitable for almost all bets.

In the long run, this seemingly small fee adds up to make it very difficult for sports bettors to turn a profit, let alone make a profit. A truly even bet, like a coin toss, would be +100 heads and +100 tails. Instead, the sportsbook lists both heads and tails of the Super Bowl coin toss as -110.

Because bettors in the Super Bowl coin toss are roughly split heads and tails, sportsbooks are generally guaranteed to make money regardless of the outcome. It is important to note that since the probability of either heads or tails is 50%, sportsbooks will “charge” 52.38% for bets, which is a classic example of -EV betting.

More traditional sports betting works the same way. For example, if a book gets an almost equal number of bettors who bet that the favorite will be covered and the favorite will not be covered, then it is guaranteed to make a profit.

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Of course, not all sports betting is a coin toss. That’s what +EV bettors are looking for, keep a cool head and be patient with betting lines that don’t seem right.

Unfortunately, bookmakers have no way of knowing which bets have a positive expected value. Some bettors trust their own algos, others pay attention to injury news, and still others have at least a semi-reliable feel for the market and generally know when to ‘buy’ low’, allowing them to Defeat your opponent to finish the line.

As mentioned earlier, the books set the course based on decades of experience and vast financial and human resources. A sports betting operator has used this vast intellectual and financial wealth to create a line that the average bettor cannot realistically replicate with nearly the same accuracy. For most sports bettors, this is correct

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