Get Your Heart Racing With The Best Betting And Casino Games – Most sports bettors have heard of expected value, but few know its true meaning. Even fewer apply this concept to their bets.

Here’s everything you need to know about expected value and why it’s arguably the most important factor in your sports betting ROI.

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In its simplest form, the expected value of a sports bet is a way to measure the probability gap between the bettor’s expectations and the athletes.

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Bookmakers distribute their odds through betting lines, which punters see assigned to all money lines, point spreads, totals and any other type of bet. Almost all legal sports in the US exclusively use what are called American odds, with positive numbers (such as +100, +222, etc.) assigned to the loser and negative numbers (-120, -155, etc.). favorite.

In this system, as the probability of winning decreases, the number of lines increases, and as the probability of winning increases, the number of lines decreases.

This means that a +100 loser is more than a +240 loser (according to the book). Conversely, a -190 favorite is more likely to win than a -120 favorite.

For example, if the book splits the team, say Seahawks vs. the Patriots, line +100, this means a 50% chance of winning or flipping a coin.

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If a bettor believes the Seahawks have a greater than 50% chance of winning this game, they will assign a positive expected value (+EV). If a bettor believes a team has less than a 50% chance of winning, they will assign a negative expected value (-EV).

Weighting bets by expected value gives smart bettors a fundamental advantage over most other bets and one of the few advantages they can have against a sportsbook.

A common mistake made by novice sports bettors is that they check the scoreboard at the last minute or watch the NFL odds on Sunday morning hoping to pick winners for the day. Those looking for expected value, or +EV, look at the lines (and by extension, the odds) that players place on each game, often as early as possible, and try to figure out whether the bet is over or under.

The NFL’s best players have a habit of finding value early in the week. By Thursday, bettors had tightened their lines, and in a market as efficient as the NFL, value bets are only available for a short time before the market settles.

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Positive Expected Value betting is a fundamental sports betting method that is underutilized by casual bettors, often referred to as the “public”.

A regular bettor is more like a roulette player waiting for his suit to be called. A +EV bettor is a stock trader who tries to sell high and buy low.

As most sportsbooks overestimate betting skill, it is almost impossible to win in the long run simply by hoping to find winners. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas (and now in more than a dozen states) have spent decades grading hundreds of thousands of sporting events. They use the best bets, programs and algorithms to find the most effective lines. Even the most profitable bets win “only” 55%-56% of bets.

There is a reason that many sports books, whether in Las Vegas, New Jersey, Illinois, Colorado or Pennsylvania, offer their customers betting bonuses, free drinks and other perks; They will refund the money.

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Virtually all online and retail sportsbooks charge at least a 5 percent commission (4.54% to be exact) on line bets, also known as vigorish or “vig.” For example, if the bookie gives both teams a 50% chance of winning, the lines for both teams are -110 (52.38% default probability) instead of +100. This means that bettors pay essentially an additional 5% tax on every bet, win or loss. A bettor must win 52.38% of his bets just to break even.

Based on all of the above, sportsbooks historically have a 5% to 8% return on the total amount wagered, meaning that sports betting gives players the best chance of winning any type of legal gambling. Very few sports bettors make any significant money in the long run, but a smart bet can at least keep players engaged in recreational gambling.

For this bettors need to think critically. Expected value bets do not guarantee long-term success, but betting without EVs ensures long-term failure.

To use another analogy, the +EV bettor is like a savvy supermarket shopper. A savvy shopper notices when the prices of goods are higher than the previous visit and finds a substitute accordingly. In effect, the same shopper buys a discounted item that he would not have bought otherwise.

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Sports betting works the same way. Instead of betting on a team that is most likely to win but requires a high price to bet, +EV bettors look to the online sports betting industry to find the biggest discrepancy between what they think will happen and what is in the book for your bet. by means of lines. , implies that this will happen.

To take a specific sports betting example, let’s say a sportsbook lists the Detroit Lions as -150 favorites over the Chicago Bears. A typical bettor thinks the Lions will win, so they bet on Detroit. A smart bettor realizes that the sportsbook line implies that the Lions have a 60% chance of winning. Although they also believe that the lions will win, they think that this is much less likely than it appears from the book. In this scenario, they are looking at the bears, who have +130 underdogs on the money line, which means a 43.48% probability of winning.

Although the +EV bettor thinks the Lions are the better team, and although they are more likely to win, they believe the Bears have a greater than 43.58% chance of winning.

The value is on the Bears, so +EV bets on Chicago. Sometimes +EV can be found during the game as players look for advantages in sportsbooks that offer in-game bets. In short, expected value bets are not betting on who will win, but on which scenario.

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; A +EV bettor will sometimes bet on a team they expect to lose if that matters.

It may seem like taking the probability of a betting line is a complicated formula, but it is actually the simplest component of EV betting.

For American odds, if the book line is a positive value, the formula calls for dividing 100 by the line number plus 100. It looks like this:

So if the book’s betting line is +110, divide 110 by 110 plus 100. Bettors must remember to add the line plus 100 first. This looks like this:

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Turning negative odds is just as easy. This time, it’s the line divided by the line plus 100. It looks like this:

For example, using -190, you want the following. Again, the formula requires adding the two parts of the denominator (or the other half of the equation) before dividing the numerator:

From there, the bettor can place a +EV bet not simply by predicting a team to win, lose or cover, but by weighing the book’s probability of such an event.

Bettors may note that the odds do not add up to 100% in the example above. In the Bears-Lions example at the top of the page, the combined percentages for Chicago (+130 / 43.48% chance to win) and Detroit (-150 / 60% chance to win) equal 103.48%.

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Or looking at the “even” bet example above, both teams are assigned lines of -110, or 52.38% odds. This is due to the wig that applies to virtually all bets.

These seemingly small fees add up in the long run, making it difficult to place sports bets, let alone profit. A truly even bet, like a coin toss, should be +100 heads, +100 tails. Instead, sportsbooks list Super Bowl coin bets at -110 for both heads and tails.

Because Super Bowl coin toss bets are roughly split between heads and tails, the sportsbook is essentially guaranteed to make money regardless of the outcome. In particular, since the probability of heads or tails is 50%, and the probability of a bet in sportsbooks is 52.38%, this is a classic example of an -EV bet.

More traditional sports betting works in much the same way. If, for example, the book accepts approximately even bettors betting that the favorite will cover and the favorite will not cover, they are guaranteed to win money.

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Of course, not all sports betting is a coin toss. They are what +EV bettors are looking for, keeping calm and patiently waiting for a betting line that looks bad.

Unfortunately, bettors have no precise way of knowing which bets have a positive expected value. Some bettors rely on their own algorithms, others keep an eye on injury news, still others have developed a semi-trusted feel for the market and more often than not know when the time to “buy low” is allowing them to. beating closing line.

As mentioned above, the books draw on decades of experience and significant financial and human capital resources. A sportsbook operator uses this vast intellectual and financial wealth to create a line that cannot actually be replicated by the average bettor with nearly the same accuracy. For the vast majority of sports bettors it simply is

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