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Several articles have been written that talk about how venture capitalists prefer to bet on the rider (the ), rather than the horse (the startup idea). As I’ve said many times, I’d rather invest in an A+ team with a B+ idea than a B+ team with an A+ idea. So I agree with this premise that the rider is usually more important than the horse. This post will tell you when one trumps the other.
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Unless the idea is primarily material (eg has a chance to become a multi-billion dollar company), why waste your time shooting for VC return types. In other words, would you rather invest in Jeff Bezos, one of my heroes, building a rafting business in the arid Sahara desert, or me, a tried-and-true (albeit a fraction of Bezos’s talent) trying to build a next-generation AI technology disrupting a $200 billion industry? The former has little prospect of material revenue generation, and the latter could become the next unicorn-sized startup, so it’s a relatively easy decision.
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There is a tipping point where the idea is worth betting more than . But the reality is that a seasoned venture capitalist would try to convince me that I’m not as capable as someone like Bezos to actually execute this grand vision and get him to hand over the reins to take my company to great heights. I get. What I would or wouldn’t do based on how confident I was in my own abilities versus the positive equity value I could realize with someone like Bezos at the helm.
That is exactly my point in this piece. It is not the jockey NOR the horse. It is the rider AND the horse. That’s how you create great business returns — with A+ teams creating A+ ideas. And anything you can do to make that happen is the holy grail of business investing.
As a bit of fun, and to help clarify this point further, I looked at some horse racing data to see if I could glean some insight on the matter. First, I looked at the last four horses to win the Triple Crown — Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Affirmed (1978) and American Pharoah (2015). I compared them to a typical top 100 winning racehorse in 2016. The data was incredible. Triple Crown winners won their races 79 percent of the time, compared to the top 100 who won 48 percent of the time. This is a very good argument for the horse.
Next, I looked at the last four riders to win the Triple Crown: Ron Turcotte (1973), Jean Cruguet (1977), Steve Cauthen (1978) and Victor Espinoza (2015). I compared them to a typical top 100 jockey in 2016. I was surprised to see Triple Crown jockeys win 15 percent of the time, slightly less than the top 100 jockeys who won 16 percent. This suggests that the rider did not matter at all. In other words, any of the top 100 jockeys could have ridden any of the Triple Crown horses to their victories. Another data point that speaks to the importance of the horse.
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But as a new leader supporting the rider, this left me unsatisfied, so I dug a little deeper. I learned that Cauthen’s above-average 19 percent win rate (twenty percent better than the top 100 rider’s average win rate of 16 percent), could be a major contributor to Affirmed’s Triple Crown victory—like the 76 horse’s winning percentage below the 80 percent winning percentage of other horses who won the Triple Crown. A good argument for the rider to take a great horse and make it even better.
But then I learned that Cruguet won only 12 percent of his races, well behind the 16 percent average of the top 100 riders. But Seattle Slew, the horse he rode to a Triple Crown, had won 82 percent of his races, beating the 78 percent average win rate for the other three Triple Crown winners. Chalk one up in front of the horse, making a rider look better than he really was.
Based on the examples above, from both business and horse racing, there are times when the rider is more important and other times when the horse is more important to riding success. All other things being equal, always bet on the rider to take a good idea and make it better. But when the idea is this big, you have no choice but to bet on it, assuming a capable leader is in charge. But, if necessary, upgrade the average for a proven winner, which is like putting gravy on your turkey dinner—a dish that’s guaranteed to cook through and taste great in the end.
An important lesson here for most of you – lose the ego and pride of feeling like you are the only person who can build your startup as your personal value of your big idea in someone else’s hands can be worth a lot more money . Separate your CEO hat from your chairman hat and figure out what would really be best for your shareholders, of which you are probably the largest.
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George Deeb is the managing partner of Red Rocket Ventures, a consulting firm that helps early-stage companies with their growth strategies, marketing and financing needs. He is the author of three books, including 101 Startup Lessons — An’s Handbook.
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Too often, meetings take longer than they should and don’t keep participants engaged. Here’s how to run a meeting the right way. A PUNTER turned a 5p bet into a £2,950 payout thanks to a shock 40-1 winner.
The punter bet a total of £16 on a combination of horses to finish 1-2-3 in that order in the final race of day two at Royal Ascot via Tote.
Incredibly, perceptive judge Andrew Mount is more than just an eerie Rising Star outsider for jockey Neil Callan and Marco Botti.
If you had put a pound into the tricast it would have made a whopping £53,667.80.
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The Mamba Racing group cheered for £51,540 after winning the Kensington Palace Stakes, a one-mile handicap for fillies and mares.
This was the second big winner in as many days – with some very expensive and bad stories along the way.
TEMPLEGATE TIPS My NAP goes for a hat-trick in a race and track he absolutely loves
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Dubai Future posted a 20-1 winner in the Wolferton Stakes, but due to the players with the Tote they were paid a much bigger 28-1.
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