Bet On The Go With Sportsbet’s Mobile App – Most sports bettors have heard of expected value, but few know what it actually means. Even fewer implement their betting ideas.

Here’s what you need to know about expected value and why it’s the most important factor for your sports betting ROI.

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At its simplest, expected value in sports betting is a way to measure the probability gap between a bettor’s expectations – and the sports book.

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Oddsmakers determine their odds through betting lines, which look at bettors’ allocations for all money lines, point spreads, totals and any other type of bet. Almost all US legal sportsbooks exclusively use what are called American odds, which assign positive numbers (such as +100, +222, etc.) and negative numbers (-120, -155, etc.) to your favorite. .

In this system, the number of lines increases as the probability of winning decreases and the number of lines decreases as the probability of winning increases.

This means that a +100 underdog is as likely to win as a +240 underdog (by the book). Conversely, a -190 favorite is more likely to win than a -120 favorite.

For example, if a book assigns one team – say the Seahawks against the Patriots – a +100 line, that translates to a 50% chance of winning, or a coin flip.

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If a bettor bet that the Seahawks have a greater than 50% chance of winning this game, they would assign a positive expected value (+ EV). If the bettor believes the team has less than a 50% chance of winning, they will assign a negative expected value (-EV).

Weighting bets by expected value gives sharp bettors a fundamental advantage over most other bettors and is one of the few edges they can take against a sportsbook.

A common mistake for sports newbies is that they run through the tables at the last minute, or look at NFL odds on Sunday morning, hoping to pick the day’s winners. Those looking for expected value, or +EV, consider the lines (and, by extension, probabilities) offered by oddsmakers for each game, often as early as possible, and try to overvalue or undervalue a bet.

The best NFL bettors make a habit of getting value early in the week. By Thursday, oddsmakers had adjusted their lines, and in an efficient market like the NFL, price bets are only available for a short time before the market catches up.

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Positive expected value betting is a basic method of sports betting, not often used by casual bettors, referred to as the “public”.

A casual bettor is more like a roulette player who hopes that his suit is called. bettor + EV is a stockbroker who wants to sell high and buy low.

As much as most sports bettors overestimate their betting ability, it is impossible to win much in the long run by expecting to find winners. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas (and now more than a dozen other states) have spent years evaluating hundreds of thousands of sporting events. They employ the best oddsmakers, programs and algorithms to find the most effective lines. Even the most profitable bettors “only” win about 55%-56% of bets.

There is a reason many sports books, Las Vegas, New Jersey, Illinois, Colorado or Pennsylvania, offer betting bonuses, free drinks and other benefits to their customers; They will refund their money.

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Almost all retail and online sportsbooks charge at least a 5 percent fee (4.54% to be exact) on betting lines, also known as lively or “vig.” For example, if a sportsbook gives both teams a 50% chance of winning, the line for both teams is -110 instead of +100 (implied probability 52.38%). This means that bettors are essentially paying an extra 5% levy on every bet, win or lose. A bettor needs to win 52.38% of their bets just to break even.

That said, sportsbooks historically have a 5% to 8% profit on total money bets, meaning sports betting offers players the best winning chance of any legal form of gambling. Few sports bettors make significant money in the long run, but smart bets can at least keep punters afloat to play entertainingly.

To do this, a bettor must think critically. Expected value bets do not guarantee long-term success, but gambling without EV considerations guarantees long-term failure.

To use another analogy, a +EV bettor is like a savvy supermarket shopper. The smart shopper notices when an item costs more than the previous visit and gets a replacement accordingly. In fact, the same buyer buys an item at a discount that he might not have bought otherwise.

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Sports betting works the same way. Instead of betting on a team that will win but requires a larger price to bet, +EV bettors shop around the online sports betting industry to find the biggest discrepancies between what will happen and what will happen. Which happens in the book, through its betting lines. , indicating that will happen.

Taking a specific sports betting example, let’s say the sportsbook lists the Detroit Lions as a -150 money line over the Chicago Bears. A typical bettor bets the Lions will win, so they bet on Detroit. Although they believe the Lions will win, they think it’s much less than the book says. In this case, they look instead to the Bears, who are +130 moneyline underdogs, which translates to a 43.48% win probability.

Even though +EV bettors think the Lions are the better team – and even though they seem more likely to win – they believe the Bears have a 43.58% chance of winning.

The value is with the Bears, so betting +EV bets on Chicago. Sometimes it is possible to get +EV during a game, as bettors look for edges at sportsbooks that offer in-game bets. In short, expected value bettors are not betting on who they think will win, but under what circumstances

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; A +EV bettor sometimes bets with a team they expect to lose, if that value exists.

Taking probability from a betting line may seem like a complicated formula, but it’s actually the simplest element of EV betting.

For American odds, if the book line is a positive value, the formula says to divide 100 by the line number plus 100. It looks like this:

So if the book game line is +110, divide 110 by 110 plus 100. Bettors should remember to add 100 first. It will look like this:

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Negative margin conversions are just as easy. This time, it’s the line divided by the line plus 100. It looks like this:

Using -190, for example, you want the following. Again, the formula calls for adding the two halves of the denominator (or the second half of the equation) before dividing the numerator:

From there a bettor can make a +EV bet by weighing the likelihood of such an event occurring against the odds provided by the book, not by predicting whether a team will win, lose or cover.

Bettors may note that the probabilities in the example above do not add up to 100%. In the Bears-Lions example at the top of the page, Chicago (+130 / 43.48% chance to win) and Detroit (-150 / 60% chance to win) have a combined percentage of 103.48%.

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Or if you notice from the “fair” bet example earlier, both teams are assigned -110 lines or 52.38% probability. This is due to vig, which is applied to almost every betting.

Those seemingly small fees add up in the long run, making it difficult for sports outfitters to break even, much less profit. A truly fair bet, like a coin toss, should be +100 heads, +100 tails. Instead, sports betting books list Super Bowl bets at -110 for both heads and tails.

Because the Super Bowl loses to base bettors roughly split between heads and tails, the sportsbook is guaranteed to make money regardless of the outcome. In particular, since the probability of either head or tail is 50%, and the sportsbook “charges” 52.38% for the bet, this is a classic example of -EV betting.

Much of the more traditional sports betting works the same way. If, for example, a book gets about an equal number of punters who promise to cover your favorite and who don’t, it’s guaranteed to make money.

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Of course, not every sports bet has to cost money. This is what +EV bettors are looking for, keep a cool head and wait patiently for a betting line to appear.

Unfortunately, there is no surefire way to know which bets have a positive expected value. Some bettors trust their own algorithms, others keep an eye on hit news, and some have acquired at least a semi-reliable feel for the market and often don’t know, when it’s time to “buy low”, which allows them to hit the bottom line.

As mentioned earlier, books set their lines based on years of experience and significant financial and human resources. A sportsbook operator uses these vast intellectual and financial resources to create a line that the average bettor cannot realistically replicate with nearly the same accuracy. For the vast majority of sports bettors, it’s straightforward

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